Asian ethylene equipment repair peak is approaching

In 2010, an estimated 22 crackers will be shut down for maintenance in Asia, much higher than the 15 devices this year. Asian ethylene buyers may be caught in a difficult situation, but ethylene exports from the Middle East may ease this tight supply.
Cracker operators in Asia generally expect ethylene prices to rise as ethylene spot shipments will be very scarce. The manager of YNCC, the largest operator of naphtha crackers in South Korea, said: “In the first half of next year, the supply and demand of Asian ethylene market will be relatively normal, but it will be difficult to predict afterwards.”
An olefin producer in Japan said: "There will be 8 sets of cracker equipment in Japan next year to stop overhaul, which will support the ethylene price. The operating rate of other crackers in Japan will remain at a high level of 90% to 95%."
An olefin trader in South Korea said: “The key to affecting the Asian ethylene market lies in the Middle East. If crackers in the Middle East are still not operating well next year, they will provide support for Asian ethylene prices.” Asia’s largest ethylene exporter in the Middle East— - The low level of operating rate of the Iranian cracker has intensified the tight supply of ethylene in Asia. Market participants said that due to the unplanned shutdown of the plant and the lack of natural gas feedstock, the average operating rate of Iran's cracker this year was only 50% to 60%. Traders said that Iran’s ethylene exports this year are expected to be significantly lower than last year's. Last year’s exports were 680,000 to 700,000 tons, and this year’s exports are estimated at 400,000 to 450,000 tons.
However, some relief is that three new cracker installations in South East Asia will be put into operation in 2010, which will ease the impact of overhauls in the region on the market supply. A new set of 800,000-ton/year cracker from Shell Chemicals in Singapore will also be put into operation in the first quarter of next year. The ethylene surplus of the unit is estimated to be 100,000 to 200,000 tons/year, which will depend on the operating rate.
Market participants said that for most of this year, the difference between polymer and ethylene remained at a reasonable level of 200-300 US dollars / ton. The PE market performance will ultimately determine the trend of ethylene prices in 2010. Due to strong demand from the downstream polyethylene (PE) sector, the average operating rate of naphtha crackers in Asia in November was between 90% and 100%.
Yuha Kodaira, general manager of basic chemicals division of Japan Marubeni Chemical (Asia Pacific) Company stated, “We have not really seen the impact of new polymer production capacity in the Middle East on the market this year. This may be a key factor affecting the price of the ethylene market next year. According to the ICIS price report, from the end of 2008 to 2009, the Middle East is expected to add 5.8 million tons per year of PE capacity, and less than half of this year's capacity actually entered the market.
The current market focus is on whether the strong demand for petrochemical products and consumer goods in the Chinese market will persist until 2010, when the price of crude oil fluctuates significantly and a large number of newly added PE capacity from China and the Middle East are put into production.
PE producers, especially Malaysian and Thai producers, are not optimistic about the price trend of polymers, as the region will cancel import tariffs from next January, and the intensification of competition will increase downward pressure on prices. A Thai producer said: “We have already felt the impact of tariff policies. Some buyers are suspending the purchase of PE products and are waiting for the import tariff to be cancelled in January next year before entering the market.”

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