Global sulfur prices will remain low for a long time
Fenghua Jade Motor Co., Ltd. , http://www.gosbearing.com
Xi Dacheng’s largest export destination, Dadar Zhuo, said that currently, the major production areas of sulfur are the Middle East, the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America, and East Asia. The Asia region mainly separates and recovers sulfur from oil and natural gas. North America mainly recovers sulfur from oil sands. Since 2008, due to the global financial crisis and the instability of sulphur prices, North American sulphur production has declined. However, due to the production of several oil and natural gas projects in the Middle East, the output of oil and gas desulfurization has increased. At present, West Asia has become the world's largest exporter of sulphur, among which Saudi Arabia is the largest producer of sulphur in the Middle East and all sulphur produced is exported.
The total production of sulphur and sulphur compounds this year is about 74 million tons (or pure sulfur, the same below), which is only 1% higher than in 2008, but the increase is obvious in the future. It is estimated that the output will reach 85 million tons in 2010 and it will reach 2017. 100 million tons. The output of pyrite-based sulphuric acid production in total sulphur production will remain stable, and the increase in the output of petroleum and natural gas desulfurization will be more pronounced. It is due to the fact that most of the sulphur is produced not because of market demand, but because the environmental protection department controls the air. Sulfur gas emissions, oil and gas purification and smelter flue gas recovery in the production of more and more sulfur. As countries increasingly value the environment, the sulfur content of fuels in the future will be further limited. It is understood that the sulphur content limit of fuels for European ships starting from next year will be reduced from the current 1% to 0.1%, and the demand for fuel in other regions will be further increased. With the development of oil and gas exploration and the scale of metal smelting, in the future, the world's sulfur production will greatly increase. She predicts that sulfur production will increase from 48.9 million tons in 2009 to 63.5 million tons in 2012, and will reach 74.1 million tons in 2017.
Demand growth in Asia is rapid. Dazhuo Zhuo said that the demand for sulfur in the world mainly comes from the increase in production of phosphate fertilizers for agriculture and non-fertilizer use in non-ferrous metal beneficiation. At present, sulfur for fertilizer accounts for approximately 54% of total demand, and sulfur for metal processing is used. 46%. Since 2008, affected by the financial crisis, both the phosphate fertilizer industry and the non-fertilizer industry have seen a decrease in the demand for sulfur, but the sulfur consumption of both the fertilizer industry and the non-fertilizer industry will resume growth in 2010 and the demand will reach more than 70 million tons. , more than the 2007 level. He said that in the future, sulfur demand growth will come from developing countries, especially in East Asia, and it is predicted that the growth of phosphorous fertilizer in East Asia will account for 75% of the world's growth next year. In addition, the demand for sulfur in South Asia is also greater in India and Pakistan. .
Catherine pointed out that China is the world's largest producer of phosphate fertilizers. With the promotion of soil testing, formula fertilization and fertilizer utilization, China's demand for phosphate fertilizer may reach saturation after 2011, resulting in no significant increase in China's sulfur demand. Apart from China, there is more room for growth in demand for phosphate fertilizers in Russia.
In addition, as a new type of fertilizer, sulphur fertilizer has great potential in the agricultural market. It is estimated that the world's sulphur fertilizer has a deficit of more than 5 million tons, which has great market potential. The construction industry and metal beneficiation are also relatively high in sulphuric acid. Market demand space. Duan Changsheng, general manager of Sinofert's International Trade Department, predicted that in 2013, the world's sulfur trade volume will be about 33 million tons, of which China's imports will be 9 million tons, and North Africa will import 7.5 million tons, making it the world's second-largest import area.
Inventories will set a record high With the development of the global phosphate fertilizer industry, the world's stocks of sulfur will decline year after year, and Kazakhstan and Canada will increase shipments in 2007. The world's stock of sulfur will reach the lowest point. However, since 2008, sulfur stocks in countries such as Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan have increased, and it is estimated that world sulfur stocks will exceed 30 million tons in 2009, a record high.
He said that West Asia, North America, and the Commonwealth of Independent States are the world's major regions where sulphur supply exceeds demand. Due to the improved inventory system of sulphur in countries such as Canada and Russia, when the current price of sulphur is low, countries have reduced their export volume and increased their stocks. Although Kazakhstan has a large export volume, its production and reserves of sulfur in the Tengiz oil field are relatively large, and there are still about 7.3 million tons of inventory. Zhao Lei, Consultant of Sulphur Consulting in the United Kingdom, predicted that the long-term sulphur supply exceeding demand will not change, and the excess sulphur in the international market will intensify from this year. The accumulated surplus of sulphur in the world from 2009 to 2017 will reach 50 million tons. The industry generally believes that because of the impact of supply exceeding demand, sulfur prices will be low, but there are some variables, depending on the cost of sulfur and the affordability of the downstream market.