2012 Global Industry cautiously optimistic
Kevin Swift, chief economist of the American Chemical Industry Council (ACC), pointed out recently that due to the possibility of a recession in Europe, global chemical production in 2012 is expected to increase by 3.6%. He stressed that emerging economies will become bright spots in the depressed market. In 2012, the demand for chemicals in emerging markets will increase by 6.2%, which is higher than 5.4% in 2011. In sharp contrast, after experiencing the cyclical rebound in 2010, the growth rate of the chemical industry in developed countries will fall to 2% per year from 2011 to 2012. The global economy is showing signs of weakness, but it is not yet in a recession unless the European debt crisis worsens or China's economic development stagnates. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Perspectives, believes that the slowdown in global economic growth in 2012 is no doubt that the degree of uncertainty is only slowing down. The United States is very likely to be free from recession. Europe has already Faced with difficulties. IHS Global Perspectives predicts that the global GDP growth rate will slow to about 2.7% in 2012, which is 0.3% lower than the 3% in 2011. This is based on the assumption that Europe is only suffering a moderate recession and the Chinese economy has avoided a hard landing. Prediction. Bellavans said that if the European recession is deep and the Chinese economy has a hard landing, then the global economy will grow at a slower pace and may once again fall into a recession. After a strong rebound in the past two years, the growth of bulk chemicals in 2012 will lag behind that of specialty chemicals. Swift said that the growth rate of basic chemicals will slow down in 2012, but specialty chemicals will still maintain the average growth rate in the past few years, and the difference in growth rate between 2013 will increase. Emerging economies will continue to lead the growth in global demand for chemicals is the consensus of the industry. Stephen Prell, president of ExxonMobil Chemical, said that for 2012, the company still maintains reasonable growth forecasts, especially in China and Asia. In 2011, due to the dual impact of digesting inventory and credit tightening, China's polyolefin demand was not performing well but the long-term trend remained positive. In 2012, China's chemical demand growth is expected to reach 7% to 9%, which will make up for the weak demand from Western economies. Prel stressed: "I don't expect that the demand fundamentals of Western economies will be better in 2012 than in 2011, but the positive impact of emerging economies cannot be ignored. Therefore, in 2012, the global chemical market demand will maintain a reasonable rate of growth. Higher than GDP growth." Paul Hanik, global COO of KPMG's chemical business, said that the European debt crisis and a weak economy heralded a greater downward risk for the global chemical market in 2012. However, factors such as the eastward shift of the chemical market, global population growth, and improved energy efficiency will continue to provide the world's chemical industry with greater growth opportunities in 2012. In the near term, the focus of global chemical producers is on the control of European debt risk and the transformation of China's strategy. The substantial increase in natural gas supply will position the US chemical industry in a favorable position, but its domestic demand will remain weak. In 2012, the demand for chemicals in the United States will increase by 2%, of which the demand for specialty chemicals will increase by 3.4%, the demand for consumer chemicals will increase by 2.5%, and the demand for other chemicals will maintain the growth rate of 0-2%. Swift said that the slowdown in the recovery of the manufacturing industry is curbing US domestic chemical demand, but the current level of US chemical stocks is relatively low, even in a weak economic environment, it can also support the growth of chemical production. Exports will remain the biggest driver of the development of the US chemical industry, especially basic chemicals. U.S. chemical exports were stimulated by rising demand in overseas markets, weak US dollar, and favorable oil and gas price ratios. According to the ACC forecast, in 2012, the surplus of imports and exports of US chemicals (excluding pharmaceuticals) will increase by 8.8% to reach US$47.2 billion. Among them, the surplus of basic chemical import and export trade will increase by 6% to 37.3 billion U.S. dollars, which is mainly stimulated by the substantial increase in the production of low-cost natural gas. By 2016, the U.S. basic chemical import and export trade surplus will reach 54 billion U.S. dollars, a substantial increase of 50% over 2009. In 2012, the output value of the US chemical industry will reach US$814 billion, an increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of chemical plants will reach 72.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points; the export of chemicals will reach US$0.7 billion, an increase of 6%; and the import of chemicals will reach 2016 billion. The US dollar rose by 4.7%; R&D investment will reach US$59.65 billion, up 4%; capital investment will reach US$31.53 billion, up 7.3%. Special Custom High Speed Door
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