Analysis on the development trend of China's aluminum industry for transportation in 2018


First, China's automobile aluminizing rate has a huge room for improvement, and new energy vehicles have potential

From the perspective of developed countries, the transportation industry is the largest application area of ​​aluminum profiles. Japan and Europe account for more than 30% of the total. Among them, automobile manufacturing, railway and rail vehicle manufacturing, and container manufacturing are the most widely used and growing. The fastest three areas. In recent years, the proportion of aluminum used in transportation in China has been expanding, but it is still at a relatively low level compared with developed countries. In 2015, aluminum used for transportation accounted for 19%, which is the second largest industry for aluminum.

The proportion of aluminum consumption in the rest of the world in 2015

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Source of data: public information

2015 domestic aluminum consumption sector

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Source of data: public information

Since the entry into the automotive industry, aluminum alloys have developed rapidly, and their usage has increased year by year. The initial radiators and wheels have slowly transitioned to the cylinder block, engine hood and body-in-white. In 2015, the global aluminum consumption for bicycles was 168kg, and the aluminum consumption for bicycles in China was 115kg, which was relatively low. Due to cost constraints, the application level of domestic commercial vehicle aluminum was lower than that of passenger vehicles. The bicycle usage was about 40kg, less than the whole. 1% of the total mass of the car. Compared with developed countries, there is huge room for improvement in China's automobile aluminizing rate. It is expected that with the development of rail transit and the continuous promotion of lightweight vehicles, the demand for aluminum for automotive use will show an explosive growth. According to the forecast of the automobile industry, by 2020, China's automobile production is conservatively estimated at more than 25 million vehicles. According to the standard of 200kg/car for bicycles in 2020, the demand for automotive aluminum profiles is expected to be around 5 million tons in 2020. With the adjustment of national industrial policies, automotive aluminum will lead the development of aluminum market, and the demand for high-end aluminum will continue to increase.

Aluminum alloy bicycle usage trend forecast (unit: lb / car)

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Source of data: public information

Comparison of aluminum consumption between domestic and global bicycles (unit: kg)

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Source of data: public information

In recent years, China's automobile production and sales (unit: 10,000 units)

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Source of data: public information

Estimated amount of aluminum for bicycles (unit: kg / car)

time

Aluminum for bicycles

Overall weight loss of the car

2016-2020

190

10%

2021-2025

250

20%

2026-2030

350

30%

Second, aluminum alloy forming process is diverse, and die castings account for 80%

Aluminum alloy is the metal material for automobiles after steel. Automotive aluminum can be divided into two parts: aluminum alloy and aluminum matrix composite materials; and automotive aluminum alloy is divided into two parts: cast and deformed aluminum alloy. Simply put, the cast aluminum alloy is liquid-solidified, which becomes liquid-formed in the material forming process; the deformed aluminum alloy is solid-solidified and solid-formed in the forming process.

Liquid forming case

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Source of data: public information

Solid state forming case

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Source of data: public information

According to the more detailed classification of processing types, aluminum alloys for automobiles mainly include rolled materials, extruded materials, die-cast aluminum, forged materials, etc. According to the current use of various types of aluminum alloys in automobiles, the ratio is approximately: die-cast aluminum 77 %, 10% of rolled material, 10% of extruded material, and 3% of forged material.

Proportion of various types of aluminum alloys used in automobiles

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Source of data: public information

Looking at the national die-casting market, the share of the automotive industry is extremely impressive. As far as China is concerned, in recent years, this ratio has remained between 65 and 75% (including vehicles, motorcycles, etc.). In view of this, this proportion also shows a trend of increasing significantly year by year.

Die castings downstream industry

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