Car revitalization and then real move
Glee Stationery Firm , http://www.china-stationery-supply.com
The old-for-exchanging vehicle implementation method was introduced, with a maximum subsidy of 6,000 yuan, which is expected to stimulate the consumer demand of 500 billion yuan.
Rejuvenate the car again and real-time auto stocks will restart
Recently, the Ministry of Finance together with ten ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Commerce, the Central Propaganda Department, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Transport, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, jointly issued the "Memorandum of Practice for the replacement of automobiles". 》The specific regulations on the scope and standards of vehicle trade-in subsidies, application procedures, examination of subsidy funds, and supervision and management have been made, and subsidies ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan can be enjoyed according to scrapped models.
Commerce Minister Chen Deming pointed out that the recent decision of the State Council to implement the replacement of automobiles and home appliances is another major measure to invigorate circulation and expand consumption, and will effectively stimulate domestic consumer demand. According to forecasts, this year, the nation’s auto scrapped amount will reach 2.7 million units, and the number of household appliances scrapped will reach 90 million units. If it is completely updated, it will boost consumer demand by more than 500 billion yuan.
Subsidy is limited
Car enterprises to promote new marketing
In the first half of this year, the domestic auto market has emerged from a strong bull market: According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2009, the sales of automobiles exceeded 6 million for the first time, an increase of 17.69% compared with the same period of last year, among which passenger vehicles were especially low in displacement. The rapid growth of passenger vehicles has become the main driving force for the growth of the total number of vehicles. Under the overall downturn in the international auto industry, it is not easy for China’s auto industry to achieve such impressive results. Such rapid growth momentum is inextricably linked with the introduction of plans for the revitalization of the automobile industry at the beginning of the year and the introduction of fuel tax and subsidies for vehicle purchase tax below 1.6 liters.
The most recent New Deal is the official introduction of the "Means for the replacement of cars". On June 27th, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance announced the “Memorandum of Practice for the replacement of automobiles†(Consultation Draft). Not long after the draft was issued, many responding automobile manufacturers have followed up in various ways. The subsidy to attract owners to buy their own brand new models. Beijing Hyundai first provided an additional subsidy of RMB 6,000 to owners of vehicles using the “replacement of old†method in the Beijing area, and then upgraded the used car to replace the activity of Leading. Dongfeng Nissan also urgently added the “trade-in†program to the second-hand car certification business. The GIO micro-vehicle that was just listed in Tianjin used the national old vehicle replacement policy Dongfeng to introduce the old micro face to replace the new GIO micro-car activities. At the same time, it took the factory to send home appliances to enjoy the government subsidy and unified the retail price of 35,800 yuan in the country. On the concession of 2,000 yuan, a substantial non-profit promotion. And enjoy the "double supplement and one delivery" activity: 10% of the national subsidies for car purchases, and at the same time, it will join hands with Gome Appliances to purchase less than 1,200 yuan (refrigerators, color TV sets, washing machines), and at the same time, Gio Motors will pay the bills, and users will enjoy The country’s 13% subsidy for household appliances in the countryside has an overall discount of nearly 7,000 yuan.
Cover a wider range of models
Pulling may be greatest for commercial vehicles
According to estimates of experts from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, after the implementation of the “new-for-new†automobile policy, this year it is expected to drive the sales of 300,000 commercial vehicles. According to the analysis, given that the scope of this subsidy has been comprehensively expanded to medium-, light-, micro-vehicles and some mid-size passenger vehicles, it will, to a certain extent, promote the weak commercial vehicle market.
Industry experts generally believe that the new measures introduced by the country will not only benefit the recovery of the domestic commercial vehicle market in the second half of the year, but also help accelerate the elimination of a large number of highly polluting yellow-standard vehicles. This is a continuation of the "combination boxing" of the adjustment and revitalization plan for the auto industry this year. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June 2009, among the main commercial vehicle varieties, the growth rate of passenger cars and semi-trailer tractors was the fastest, and the sales of non-completed passenger cars had rebounded, resulting in a slight decline in production. The production and sales of non-integrated vehicles of trucks and trucks continued to decline. Compared with the same period of last year, non-integrated vehicles of trucks and passenger cars showed a certain increase, the production of passenger cars increased slightly, and the decline of non-integral vehicles of semi-trailer tractors and trucks remained significant. In order to smoothly achieve the goal of producing and selling more than 10 million automobiles for the whole year, the development of the commercial vehicle market is indispensable.
After the introduction of the TMRS, it will be beneficial to the weak commercial vehicles, especially light trucks and medium-sized passenger vehicles will be the biggest beneficiaries; in accordance with the fine-tuning policies of the local government, consumption upgrade may extend to the mid-size sedan market.
In the latest release of the semi-annual report of the listed company of the commercial vehicle of China Gold Securities, it is proposed to focus on the four companies whose performance may exceed expectations, namely Foton Motors, Jiangling Motors, Changan Automobile and Huayu Automobile. Specific analysis is as follows
Foton Motor: It is expected that the mid-year report will be about RMB 0.47, which will account for 67% of the full-year forecast. If heavy-duty trucks and light trucks pick up significantly in the second half of the year, the company's performance will have room for further upward adjustment.
Jiangling Motors: It is expected that sales in the second quarter will increase by 17% month-on-month. The Mid-Range forecast is 0.47 yuan, which accounts for 64% of the annual forecast. The current dynamic PE is 19 times, and the performance has room for upward adjustment;
Changan Automobile: It is expected that Changan Ford Mazda's sales volume in the second quarter is expected to reach a record of 80,000 units. The company's first-quarter performance is only 0.01 yuan. Based on historical profit levels, the company's mid-year report may reach 0.16 yuan.
Huayu Automobile: The company is currently the most competitive component company in the domestic A-share market to share the warmth of passenger cars. At the same time, due to the absence of export business, it is also protected from the impact of overseas markets. In addition, due to the lack of sufficient historical data when the company has just listed on the Shell Bus shares, the company’s performance “visibility†is low, which also gives the company more opportunities than expected.