China's heavy truck market declines in production and sales in the first 2 months of 2011, and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles rose in contrarian prices
According to statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2011, the production and sales of trucks were 202,000 and 208,300, a decrease of 22.88% and 13.04% from the previous quarter, an increase of 9.79% and 22.32% year-on-year; sales and sales of semitrailer tractors were 19,400 and 2.04 respectively. Millions of vehicles were down 30.88% and 5.98% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 34.77% and 25.21%. Trucks and non-integrated vehicles were sold and sold 50,600 vehicles and 47,400 vehicles, down 30.22% and 19.25% month-on-month, and down 8.45% and 4.63% year-on-year.
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Compared with January 2011, the sales of semi-trailer tractors were slightly lower than the previous month, and the declines in sales of other tractors both reached double digits; compared with the same period of 2010, the number of semi-trailer tractors and trucks with non-integrated vehicles decreased. Other varieties keep increasing.
From the January to February 2011 sales rankings of heavy truck manufacturers (including non-integrated vehicles and semi-trailer tractors), the top six companies are Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Trucks, FAW, Shaanxi Automobile, Futian, and Beiben Heavy Duty Trucks. Sales were 33,700, 37,700, 29,700, 15,, 15, 15, and 9,471. Among them, the top three heavy truck companies only had Dongfeng commercial vehicles growing by 17.26% year-on-year, China National Heavy Duty Trucks and FAW were down by 0.49% and 23.66% respectively.
After the heavy-duty card market in January ushered in a good start, the heavy-duty card market slowed down in February. In general, the heavy-duty truck production and sales data in February verified the industry's forecast for the 2011 heavy-duty truck market, which indicates a slowdown in growth. At the same time, the rapid growth of semitrailer tractors in 2010 showed a year-on-year, year-on-year decline in 2011.
Tow truck fatigue, slightly increased dump truck
Some insiders believe that the credit crunch will affect the approval of construction projects, which is one of the main reasons for the slowdown in the growth of the heavy truck market. According to this, SAIC Iveco Hongyan Public Relations Division stated that the original investment in construction projects was not limited to one year but a three to five year project. Judging from the progress of project construction, new projects are officially started at the beginning of each year. In other words, this part of the project was not approved in 2011, but it was approved as early as one or two years ago. In general, the January-February heavy truck market is not much of a surprise.
The increase in production and sales in January-February 2011 is quite different from that in 2010. From the analysis of production and sales data released by the industry, the total production and sales in January-February 2011 maintained a slight increase, but the increase was small. In addition, the share of various companies in the heavy truck market is also changing, which means that the company's product competitiveness is affecting the market share of various manufacturers.
In January-February 2011, the growth of engineering vehicles was good, and logistics vehicles were slightly weaker. From January to February each year, the construction of the project will lead to the sales of construction vehicles, which is a traditional factor. Many engineering construction projects started at the beginning of the year, which led to the sales of dump trucks.
However, different markets have different sales situations. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group official told reporters that the heavy truck market in Chengdu, for example, engineering dump truck compared with the same period in 2010 fell significantly, while the proportion of semi-trailer tractors fell more. It is worth noting that while the output is rising, the company's inventory is also rising. It is understood that most companies have a certain amount of inventory pressure, and it is estimated that the industry's inventory can reach more than 100,000 vehicles, this figure is relatively large.
Difficulties in logistics lead to lower sales of tractors
In the first two months of 2011, the performance of the semitrailer tractor market was not satisfactory. Because logistics vehicles need to grow, they must have sufficient cargo volume. Only the growing demand for logistics and transportation can drive the growth of semitrailer tractors. The tractor market showed a downward trend at the beginning of 2011, which indicates that the market demand is gradually shrinking.
However, the development trend of the logistics industry is irreversible, because the transportation environment in China is gradually changing, including adjustments to the structure and freight modes of the logistics industry, gradual improvement of the road transportation environment, and the replacement of new and old models, all of which will promote the towing vehicle market. development of. In the next few years, logistics vehicles will continue to show a slow growth trend. Only part of the demand for this year was digested in advance in 2010, so the growth has slowed down.
After the bank’s credit crunch, the country’s investment has decreased, and the number of projects has decreased. This has a certain impact on the volume of traffic in the logistics industry, so the sales of tractor-trailers will be affected. So far, there are two main factors affecting the production and sales of heavy trucks. First, the Ministry of Transport issued a standard for fuel consumption limits. Vehicles that do not meet the standard requirements will not be given operational certificates. Second, the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Industry and Information The documents issued on strengthening supervision and registration of production consistency and registration also have an impact on the production and sales of automobiles. At present, many users take a wait-and-see attitude when buying vehicles.
At present, the logistics market is not optimistic. On the one hand, it is constrained by rising oil prices; on the other hand, it is not subject to the price of the freight market. This also led to poor performance of semi-trailer tractors. However, some geographically advantageous dealers have not yet felt the decline in tractor sales. In the Ningbo market, semi-trailer tractors sold better, mainly due to the resource advantages of Ningbo port cargo.
Industry growth still depends on fixed asset investment
At present, China's urbanization level is only 47.5%, and there is still a big gap between the goal of reaching 51.5% by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period. This means a lot of investment demand, especially in the middle and western regions of China, there are still many small towns are entering the stage of urbanization, in order to ease the contradictions of the central city population swelling, housing tension, traffic congestion and so on. In 2011, 10 million sets of affordable housing construction in the real estate market also injected vitality into the heavy truck market.
In the long run, the growth of fixed investment and logistics is still the main driving force for the growth of the heavy truck industry. The year 2011 is the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. Local governments will pay more attention to the growth rate of GDP, especially the implementation of the 10-year plan for the Western Development. The investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly and the development and promotion of road freight transport will continue. The process of urbanization is accelerating, etc. This is an opportunity for the heavy truck industry. In addition, the construction of water conservancy projects will also have a certain demand for heavy trucks.
All in all, in the next few years, the development of the heavy truck market will depend on the country's fixed asset investment. 
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