China manufacturing PMI rises slightly for two consecutive months

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5% in January, a 0.2% increase from the previous month. This is the second consecutive month that China's manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly after December of last year.

PMI is one of the macroeconomic monitoring indicator systems commonly used in the world and plays an important role in the monitoring and forecasting of national economic activities. Usually 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, PMI higher than 50%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy; less than 50%, reflecting the economic recession in the manufacturing sector.

From the PMI's 11 sub-indexes, compared with the previous month, the production index, new orders index, purchase price index, and raw materials inventory index increased, and the remaining indices decreased. Among them, the purchase price index and the raw material inventory index have increased by more than 1 percentage point; the backlog order index, finished goods inventory index, and import index have dropped significantly, with a drop of more than 2 percentage points.

Among the 20 industries in this month, tobacco industry, beverage manufacturing, agricultural and non-staple food processing and food manufacturing are 90% higher in 9 industries; metal products, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry 11 industries are below 50%. In terms of sub-regions, the central and western regions are higher than 50%; the eastern regions are lower than 50%. From the perspective of product type, domestic consumer goods companies are higher than 50%; raw materials and energy, intermediate goods, and manufacturing finished goods enterprises are less than 50%.

According to the investigation of manufacturing purchasing managers in January, Zhang Liqun, a special analyst, analyzed that: “Since December of last year, the PMI index continued to rebound slightly in January, indicating that the Chinese economy's callback process has gradually stabilized. The new orders index and raw material inventory index rose. Reflecting the recovery of the production readiness of industrial enterprises, the fall in the new export order index reflects the decline in the level of external demand, and the potential impact of changes in external factors needs to be highly concerned.From the changes in investment and export growth in December of last year, It is expected that the economic growth rate in the future will still show a trend of reversal, but the signs of stabilizing will become more apparent."