Electrical Equipment: State Grid's Fifth Batch of Smart Meter Bidding Reviews

The increase in the volume of tenders exceeded expectations and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 30%. The tender for Class 2 single-phase smart meters totaled 14.422 million, accounting for 34.3% of the 10 full-year; a total of 1.33 million 1-phase three-phase smart meters, accounting for 39.4% of the 10 full-year; 0.5S class three-phase meter total 96,000, accounting for 21.6% of the 10 years; 0.2S class three-phase watches totaled 2460, accounting for 21.6% of the 10 years. In this year's bid for the five bids, the Grade 2 single-phase smart watch has a total of 54.083 million sets, an increase of 30.3% over 10 years; a three-phase smart watch has a total of 5.079 million sets, an increase of 50% over 10 years; 0.5S level three-phase The table had a total of 525,000 recruits, an increase of 17.8% over 10 years. The 0.2S-level three-phase watch had a total of 15,300 recruits, an increase of 34.1% over 10 years. According to the previous plan of the State Grid, the total number of smart meters that were originally planned to be tendered in 11 years was 55 million units, and the total amount of actual tenders in 11 years was 59.7 million units, which was higher than the previous market expectation of about 10%.

The scope of the bidding has been expanded again, and end products have also been incorporated into the recruitment system. In this tender, the concentrators, collectors and special collection terminals of the terminal products were also included in the centralized tendering system for the first time. Among them, a total of 482,200 sets of tenders for concentrators and collectors were purchased, and a total of 109,000 sets of tenders were acquired for special collection terminals. We believe that the terminal products after the State Grid solicitation will present two major trends: First, the State Grid will promote the development of the State Grid, which will benefit from a larger increase in the number of beneficiaries of the State Grid. Second, the State Grid will coordinate all qualified companies. Think about it, so as to decentralize the share.

The decline in market concentration has become a tender feature. Judging from the smart meter tendering, 11 years later, the market concentration of the smart meter industry has dropped significantly compared to previous years. Among them, the 2nd-level single-phase meter (the sum of the top ten manufacturers' shares) was approved by the third batch of 10 years. The previous average of more than 70% fell to 40%-50% thereafter; the level 1 three-phase meter (the sum of the top five manufacturers' shares) fell from 65% before the fourth batch of 10 years to about 55% thereafter. The market concentration of the third batch of this year began to show a more obvious decline. The single-phase of phase 2 decreased from 50% to 48.8%, and the phase 1 phase of phase 1 decreased from 56.3% to 52.6%. Therefore, we have judged that the fifth tender will still continue this trend of decentralized share, and the concentration of terminal products for the new entry system will also decline.

After entering the recruitment system, the bidding for end products will not repeat the "price war." Due to the low-price bid-winning rule last year and a series of accidents that resulted from this, the tender for the State Grid this year has shifted from the single price standard of last year to the quality of the product. By changing the bidding rules, the price of electricity meters has obviously recovered in the first four months of this year. According to our calculations, the average annual price in 11 years is already about 5% higher than in 10 years. Therefore, we believe that under the “secondary average bid price” model, the price of terminal products is unlikely to have price competition after the initial inclusion of the system.

Related listed companies: It is expected that manufacturers engaged in smart meter production will obtain more orders this year, and then push production to next year, such as Ke Lu Electronics (not rated), Samsung Electric (not rated), Lin Yang Electronics (not rated), Hao Ningda (not rated) and so on. The Neusoft carrier (not rated), which is engaged in the production of carrier chips, will maintain a high growth rate as downstream demand expands. Companies engaged in terminal products are expected to be affected differently in terms of share and price due to differences in their individual circumstances. Representative manufacturers include Ke Lu Electronics (not rated), Wasion Group (not rated), and Samsung Electric (not rated).