·In the purchase of limited purchases, where is the 2015 auto market going?

On January 12th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the data on automobile production and sales for the whole year of 2014, which made a conclusion for the year of the ups and downs of the past. Data show that in 2014, China's automobile production and sales were 2,372,290 and 23,419,900 respectively, an increase of 7.26% and 6.86%. The production and sales of passenger cars were 1991.98 million and 19.76 million respectively, up 10.15% and 9.89% year-on-year.
In terms of independent brands, the self-owned brand passenger cars sold a total of 7.57 million units in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, but the market share was only 38.4%, down 2.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of self-owned brand cars was 2.77 million units, down 17.4% year-on-year; the sales volume of SUVs was 550,000 units, up 50% year-on-year.
“Although the total production and sales volume is still the highest in the world, the growth rate in 2014 has been greatly slowed down compared with the previous year.” Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicted that the sales volume of new cars in 2015 was about 25.13 million units, a year-on-year increase. It is 7%. In his view, the Shenzhen purchase restriction policy will cause a rush to buy to a certain extent, and promote sales growth this year, but the purchase limit is not always the best solution.
On December 29, 2014, two days after the New Year's bell was ringing, Shenzhen blew the horn of the purchase restriction. Compared with the previous purchase-restricted cities, Shenzhen's purchase restriction has two distinct characteristics: First, from the announcement to the implementation, there is only a quarter of a buffer time, even if it starts from 5 pm, it is only an hour. Basically, there is no time to snap up; second, the Shenzhen government immediately dispatched 10,000 police officers to some 4S stores in the city after the implementation of the purchase restriction order, and ordered the car to stop immediately. Prior to this, the Shenzhen city leaders had repeatedly clarified the purchase restriction news in public, and said that "there will be a wide range of opinions, and there will be no sudden attacks."
If Beijing says that it has launched a bad deal, then the practice in Shenzhen will cause panic among other urban residents who are also facing congestion problems. After Shenzhen, whether Chengdu, Chongqing or Suzhou will become the next city to buy, has become a hot topic. But what is certain is that no matter how big the opposition is, the purchase restriction will become the choice of more and more congested cities.
Information from traffic bureaus such as Chengdu and Suzhou has seen a large number of consumers waiting in line every day for the past two weeks. Among them, panic buyers account for a large proportion. “In terms of purchase restriction, Shenzhen is not the initiator, nor is it the Terminator.” Dong Yang believes that there are currently five cities in Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Qingdao and Wuhan that have the possibility of implementing a car purchase restriction policy. “Because of the road traffic in these cities The congestion situation is not optimistic."
In fact, as early as 2012, Su Ruibo, president of GM China (microblogging), said that the 25 most congested cities in China may be restricted in 2015. I didn't expect to be a slang. In cities that have already been restricted, the car purchase index continues to shrink. For example, from January 1 this year, the number of ordinary passenger cars has been reduced from 130,000 to 120,000, and the difficulty of winning the ticket has further increased. In January last year, Beijing’s car buying index dropped from 240,000 to 150,000, including 20,000 new energy targets.
At the same time, restrictions have been tightened step by step. Beijing has been constantly releasing the wind and began to demonstrate the feasibility of single and double numbers. In this environment, the consumption demand of cities that have already been restricted is completely curbed, and cities that have not implemented restrictions on purchases are overdrafting their spending power in the next few years. This unhealthy growth is tantamount to "fishing, fishing, and hunting" and is not sustainable.
In addition, another negative result of the purchase restriction is to kill the fair and free growth of the market. Among the 8 cities that have been restricted, the sales of self-owned brands are getting lower and lower, and many independent brand dealers are difficult to sustain. After enjoying the carnival feast of SUV, how to develop the next brand is still a difficult problem to be solved.
What makes us happy is that some of our own brands have already made a bloody road in the chaos. For example, the Emgrand EC7 has sold more than 20,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, ranking among the top ten in the bicycle sales rankings. Changan, whether it is a car or an SUV, is developing in a balanced manner, no longer relying on pure price wars, but winning consumers with quality, even in At present, some models in this market environment have to be sold at a higher price. It cannot be said that it is a kind of counterattack; SAIC has built a new generation of CUBE-TECH powertrain in five years, which is the most important for the next step of the product explosion. Technical barrier.
Judging from the overall market structure, although it experienced various twists and turns in 2014, it is still difficult for the public to have a strong position in the strong position of the public. In 2015, the introduction of more new products will further strengthen the current market position of the public. The Japanese cars that have been struggling in the past year will also usher in the most crucial year, with the launch of hybrid products such as Toyota and Honda, as well as new products such as the new Highlander and the new CR-V. It is worth noting that the Japanese car can counterattack in the Jedi. The legal car that goes smoothly along the water has basically been on the right track. On the basis of the 4 new cars and the new powertrain, Shenlong should not have much problem in completing the goal of 800,000 vehicles throughout the year, but on this basis, how to improve Brand influence will be the key to sustainable development in the next few years.
On the other hand, how to improve the relationship between manufacturers and dealers who have completely torn their faces in 2014 will also be a problem that major auto brands have to face this year. “It is expected that the market demand will decrease in January, and the high inventory pressure of dealers will continue.” Dong Yang believes that the high inventory of dealers will become a key to the sustainable development of the automotive industry.
If the attitude of the increase in inventory, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is only a mild reminder, then the Chinese Automobile Circulation Association, which has closer ties with dealers, is at the forefront. Last year, the Automobile Distribution Association represented 523 dealers to ask for a subsidy of 2.2 billion yuan to FAW Toyota, becoming a landmark event. With the dealers of BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz all winning the "big red envelope", the dealer's "uprising" has spread. Even dealers including Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover have joined in, to “stop the car to the factory” to give the company more subsidies to the dealers.
These dealers, which we think should be very "local tyrants", are losing money or making less money. We don't know. However, the deterioration of the relationship between manufacturers and dealers is a key factor affecting the trend of the auto market this year. Now that you have money, you can be willful, but what about it?

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