National Research Center expert: A new round of growth cycle will begin in 2013

"Overall this year, China's automobile production and sales growth rate is about 3%. This figure will be the lowest in nearly 10 years, 5% lower than the 5% in 2008." A few days ago, China Machinery Industry Federation executive vice president Zhang Xiaoji stressed that even so, he still believes that the position of the automobile industry as a pillar industry of the national economy will gradually solidify, and the trend of keeping pace with GDP will not change.

“The close interaction between the automobile and the national economy determines that the domestic automobile market will usher in a new round of growth in the future.” Yang Jianlong, vice minister of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the State Council’s Development Research Center optimistically believes that investment will be driven in the next two years. The further upgrading of industrial structure and consumption structure will create conditions for the recurrence of the auto market.

Slower revenue growth leads to a decline in the auto market?

Different from the industry’s view that the change in policy direction has caused the slowdown in the growth of the auto market, Pan Jianjian, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics’ China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center, believes that the lack of income growth of domestic urban residents is the source of the auto market decline.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the proportion of China's tertiary industry added value did not rise or fall compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of value added in the secondary industry rose, and the pattern of dependence on investment in the national economy did not change. . The result of this situation is that the proportion of underconsumption is increasing.

“Insufficient consumption is closely related to the unpleasant income growth of urban residents.” According to a set of data provided by Pan Jiancheng, in the first half of this year, China’s fiscal revenue increased by 31.2% year-on-year, industrial profits increased by approximately 28%, and real income of urban residents increased only. 7.6%, the growth rate was significantly lower than in previous years.

According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average total retail sales of urban consumer goods in China's urban consumer goods is 35% of the total household expenditure is used to buy a car, and spending on consumer goods such as gasoline is approximately 17%-20%, indicating that At present, the cost of buying and using cars for urban residents already accounts for half of their income. In the first half of this year, China’s consumption growth rate fell 3-4 percentage points, 80% of which was attributed to the slowdown in the growth of the auto market.

Will the auto market blowout in 2013?

In the eyes of economists, the current slowdown in the domestic auto market is not unrelated to the country's attempt to promote economic restructuring.

"Although the growth rate of China's auto production and sales fell sharply in the first half of the year, the sales rate of the equipment manufacturing industry that the vehicle belongs to is higher than the industrial average, and the profit growth rate of major auto companies is about 9%. The decline in growth rate can be seen as a rational return." Pan Jiancheng said that the purchase restriction policy does not mean that the demand for the automotive market is weakened. On the contrary, the market's demand for auto consumption is too strong. Judging from the perspective of economic development, China's auto The market's growth is far from reaching the end.

Pan Jianjian’s judgment is not alone in the economic circle. Yang Jianlong even boldly predicted that by 2013, the Chinese auto market will once again usher in a new round of growth and release cycles. "The current rapid decline in the growth rate of the automotive industry is not only the result of the withdrawal of favorable policies, but also the reason for the cyclical adjustment of the market itself. As long as the overall development trend of the auto industry is still in an upward curve, the upward and downward decline in the growth rate is inevitable due to the natural laws of the market economy. The current market tightening will also need to be re-aggregated and released within two to three years."

His logical reasoning is that the growth momentum of the Chinese economy, which limits the demand for housing and transportation, will still come from investment rather than consumption and exports over the next two years. Before the entire economic structure adjustment really showed results, only enough investment can provide support for the recovery after the bottoming out of the economy in the fourth quarter of this year. This kind of support will not only drive the sales of commercial vehicles but also bring about the consumption of cars for residents' income growth. The effects will be gradually transformed into the growth drivers of the auto market and will be gradually released in the next 2-3 years.

At present, domestic manufacturing investment continues to maintain a rapid growth of 27% year-on-year, and the area of ​​affordable housing starts will reach 400 million square meters in the second half of the year. The new round of infrastructure investment focusing on the construction of water conservancy infrastructure is accelerating, and these three highlights have been promoted. The industry believes it is the main driving force for the rapid development of the domestic economy. This momentum may create conditions and lay the foundation for a new round of rapid growth in the automotive market.

“The development of the automotive market is determined by the combination of long-term trend forces and short-term cyclical forces. Changes in policy factors such as restrictions on purchases can only cause the automotive market to fluctuate in the short term and deviate from the long-term upward trend. The greater the magnitude and the longer the time, the stronger and faster the reply will be."

Yang Jianlong believes that although the current auto market is at the bottom of a cycle, it is a sign of a new round of growth. He believes that by 2015, the overall sales of the Chinese auto industry will still reach levels of 23 to 24 million vehicles.