Cultivate Local Industrial Robots to Participate in the Great Challenge of International Division of Labor
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The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the industrial robot industry policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publishes the full text of the “Guidelines on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robot Industryâ€, stating that: 1) Industrial robots represent the future direction of smart equipment development; 2) By 2020, a more complete industrial robot will be formed. The industrial system fosters 3-5 internationally competitive leading companies. The market share of high-end products has increased to over 45%, and the density of robots (the number of robots used per 10,000 employees) has reached more than 100.
In 2020, the robot population will increase by 100%, implying an average annual growth of ~15%. According to the Opinions, by 2020, the domestic robot density (the number of units used per 10,000 employees) will exceed 100. We estimate the use of domestic manufacturing robots by the end of 2013. The density is expected to reach about 40 units/ten thousand people, implying that the CAGR of 2014-2020 is about 15%. We believe that the objective given in the “Opinions†is more conservative. We compared the speed of popularization of industrial robots in the period from the mid-80s to the mid-90s when Korea’s labor costs rose rapidly. We estimate that the reasonable growth rate of China’s industrial robot industry from 2014 to 2020 is approximately Average annual 25%.
The key application industry is fully rolled out and local brands are expected to speed up catching up: The “Opinions†put forward that the key areas for the application of domestic robots in the future are: automotive and parts, textile, logistics, defense industry, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and food industries. We believe that the high value-added automotive industry in the past decade is the main battlefield for robotics applications. However, it has been driven by factors such as the skyrocketing labor costs and the increasing demand for safety and comfort from employees, such as electronics, food, and military. Low value-added, labor-intensive or special environmental industries will be the main driving force for pulling up the demand for robots, and the structure of robot products will change, giving domestic brands a good opportunity to intervene. We believe that in the future, the overall growth of domestic robots beyond the industry average is a high probability event.
Focusing on integration and hosting, nurturing local leading enterprises: The “Opinions†plan to establish an industry development pattern in which industrial robots host companies and system integration companies are traction, and parts and industrial service companies develop collaboratively, and realize the full industrial chain of industrial robots. Continuous development, while 3-5 leading companies with international competitiveness. We believe that under the current industrial foundation and technological conditions, the domestic robot industry chain will have more core competitiveness and added value as it moves downstream. The integrator who masters the core customer resources and non-standard design capabilities and the product positioning accuracy will be the future. The backbone of domestic brands for a long time. Therefore, cultivating leading enterprises with international competitiveness should take system integration and some OEMs as the main breakthroughs.
Continue to be optimistic about the local leading Xinsong robots and Boss shares, and pay attention to the Pan-Industry Chain companies Huichuan Technology, Cixing, Yawei and Xinshida: We believe that robot companies that can truly honor growth in the next 2-3 years must be mastered. The leading company with core customer resources, mature design capabilities, and accurate product positioning is the first to push Xinmong robots with strong application technology scalability and the deepest accumulation of host technology, and to push the leading Boss shares in automation applications in the petrochemical industry. In spare parts and simple ontology companies, we believe that relying on their own team R & D to achieve a lower probability of breakthrough, relatively more optimistic about the strength of the partner's strong shares, Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical and Yawei shares.
Foreign robots have very strong comprehensive capabilities, such as key connection parts, assembly processes, and software algorithms. For example, in a harmonic reducer that is very important in robots, the lifespan of harmonic reducers made from domestic materials can only last one to two years. After one year, the wear is very serious. The material of the harmonic reducer directly affects the robot. The speed and accuracy. The core algorithm of the robot, domestic robots are not leading enough in trajectory smoothing algorithms, so the robots such as grinding and welding are mostly foreign brands.
In the future development process of the robotics industry, reducing costs is also an important direction. The analysis of the future technological trends in the development of international robots is as follows:
(1) The modularization of the structure, the reconfigurable research organization, and the reconfigurable technology of control and perception, through the rapid reconstruction of the robot system to adapt to the new environment and new tasks, reflects a good job flexibility.
(2) The openness and networking of the control system The scalability, interoperability, portability, and reducibility of the control system are studied. The robot is developed from an independent system to a group system.
(3) Digitization and decentralization of the drive system Digital control and networked motion control of the robot drive system is achieved through distributed control, remote networking, and on-site control.
(4) Multi-sensor fusion is a practical multi-sensor fusion algorithm that is practical and effective (especially for non-linear, non-stationary, and non-normal distribution of real-world information).
(5) The humanization and integration of robot operations The human-centered operating system is used to realize the coordination of robot groups, group intelligence, and human-machine harmony in the operation process.
(6) Graphical human-computer interaction, three-dimensional holographic full immersive graphical environment, three-dimensional holographic environment modeling, true three-dimensional virtual reality devices, and human-computer interaction devices with multiple physical effects such as force, temperature, and vibration.
As far as Chinese products are concerned, the key technologies for the development of industrial robots in the future in China are: First, dangerous and harsh environments. Operating robots: mainly riot, high-voltage live cleaning, planetary inspection, oil and gas pipelines, etc. Second, medical robots : There are mainly brain surgery assistant robots, remote control operation assisting bones, etc. Third, bionic robots: mainly mobile robots, network remote control robots, etc. Its development trend is intelligence, low cost, high reliability and easy integration.
The market competition of industrial robots is becoming more and more fierce. China's manufacturing industry is facing great challenges of getting in line with international standards and participating in the international division of labor. Accelerating the research, development, and production of industrial robot technology is the main way for us to seize this historical opportunity.
