LED industry prospects can be expected in 2014 "seven predictions"
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Time flies, 2013 and we are gradually drifting away; the situation is changing, the LED industry is still moving forward. In the coming year, the development of LED will face more opportunities and challenges. During this period, the business strategy of LED companies is particularly important. Combining environmental advantages, making a special brand, and achieving scale effect are effective ways for LED companies to respond to market risks in the future. For 2014, the LED industry has seven predictions.
1, the global LED light source replacement tide will officially start According to LEDinside analysts, in the fast-growing LED lighting market, lighting manufacturers have integrated resources and competitiveness by acquiring channels and technologies. At present, most of the lighting manufacturers are equipped with various wireless transmission technologies and overall intelligent control technology, and even green building solutions with various renewable energy sources, so the business opportunities in the future are quite large. In addition, the promotion of brand image can expand the bargaining space of lighting manufacturers, and can also get rid of the dilemma of continuous price competition.
2. In 2014, the shipment of LED lighting products increased by 70%, and the output value reached 17.8 billion US dollars. The penetration rate of LED lighting in the global market is rapidly increasing. In 2014, the output value of LED lighting will reach 17.8 billion US dollars, and the total number of LED lighting products shipped will reach 1.32 billion. Only, compared with 2013 growth 68. LEDinside said that the global LED lighting product replacement tide is caused by the rapid decline in prices, among which the alternative light source products are the most obvious, bulbs and lamps are the most popular alternative light source types. In addition, the LED lighting products in 2013 accounted for 38 and 25. In addition, the future demand for integrated LED lighting products will gradually rise, especially in combination with smart lighting applications, so it is expected that the proportion of LED lighting products in 2014 will be expected to increase year by year.
3. In 2014, the market trend of FlashLED will show that the penetration rate of M-type FlashLED in smart phones has reached 100. Looking at Flash business opportunities, LED operators are actively investing in the Flash market. In 2013, the specifications of FlashLED are driven by the currents of 1000mA, 500mA and 350mA. In 2014, the specifications of FlashLED will move towards M-type development. Under the driving current of 1000mA, the FlashLED with brightness of 240-250lm will continue to play the middle and high-end mainstream. On the other hand, if the customer has reduced cost considerations, and the imported models are medium and low-end models, the adoption of FlashLED will fall within the specification of driving current of 350mA and brightness below 75lm.
4. In 2014, the direct TV penetration rate exceeded 60%, and the impact of LED backlight output in 2013 LEDTV penetration rate was driven to 95 level by Chinese TV manufacturers. In 2014, it is expected to completely replace CCFL. The annual TV shipments are estimated to be 2 Billion 9 million units, the annual growth rate is 3. However, the TV LED backlight production value is estimated to be 2.41 billion US dollars in 2014, and the annual growth rate is declining by 17. The main reason is that the number of LEDs used in direct-type TVs is less than that of side-light models. About 50%, and the penetration rate of direct-type models in 2014 will be as high as 60%, which is the main reason for the growth of LED TV shipments and the decline in LED output.
5, the price continues to decline, lighting demand will increase by nearly two years, the global lighting market began to show the whitening effect, while the upstream chip technology and price decline, the gap between LED lighting and traditional lighting products gradually narrowed, downstream The decline in the price of LED lighting products has become an indisputable implementation. At present, the price of LED lighting products is declining at a rate of about 20 per year. In many areas, the minimum price of LED bulbs that replace 40W or 60W is even less than 10 dollars, and it is gradually approaching the price of traditional energy-saving lamps.
According to statistics, in October 2013, the price of some 40W LED products replaced by the world was more obvious. The lowest price of brand lamps in various regions has fallen below 10 dollars, and the average price gap between different regions is gradually narrowing. Especially in the UK, 11 has fallen sharply. Some of the original high-priced items were lowered, while low-priced items continued to fall. Brands such as OSRAM, Samsung, and LG are selling products that are close to or below $10 in the UK. The lowest price for replacing 40W goods in the region has now reached $8.1. In the US region, in addition to the low-cost bulbs recently introduced by CREE and Wal-Mart, Philips and Ecosmart have also sold products of less than $10. The current minimum price for the replacement of 40W in the region has also been reduced to $9.
6. In 2014, the company will be separated from oversupply. Ye Weifu, Chairman of Yiguang, Chairman of Crystal Power, Li Bingjie, Chairman of Dongbei, Wu Qinghui, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Jian Feng, and Li Shiyi, Managing Director of Cree Hong Kong, etc. Next year's industrial boom, Li Bingjie changed his conservative attitude, and expects LED to be out of supply.
In recent years, Taiwan's LED factory has suffered from the support of the mainland's large-scale supporters. After oversupply, gross profit margins, and operating losses, the mainland has suspended the subsidies and countries have begun to ban the incandescent lamps to stimulate LED lighting business opportunities. The industry is gradually coming from the bottom. rising.
LED epitaxial leader Dong Bing Li Bingjie originally held a conservative view on the industry this year and has become more optimistic in the near future. Li Bingjie pointed out that in the near future, the rapid rise of the crystal power supply, the market supply and demand balance point is expected to have an early arrival, the industry will turn around next year, and the profitability of manufacturers in 2015 is expected to grow.
Li Shiyi, managing director of Cree Hong Kong, the global LED lighting leader, believes that the application and demand of LED lighting is too wide, and the scale is beyond the past LED application and market imagination.
LED godfather Ye Qifu said that with the price of LED lighting in person, the demand for LED lighting will grow next year, and the proportion of revenue from Yiguang Lighting will surpass the backlight for the first time.
7. Digital Age 2014 LED lighting network will aim at the application of Blue Ocean With the popularity of mobile internet, people looking for an accurate location when traveling, like to use wireless positioning system to find the target location, however, when people are in large shopping malls, shopping malls, etc. In the building, the usual positioning system is often not suitable. The traditional wireless positioning system is easily interfered by objects and weather, and the accuracy of positioning is not high. However, the traditional GPS navigation technology is very useful outdoors, but the building is not suitable for satellite signals. While some companies are trying to locate indoors using wireless networks, common indoor wireless technologies (such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth) are not well suited to locate the exact location of everyone. Indoor navigation can be widely used in large buildings such as shopping malls, airports, stadiums, etc., to facilitate people to find people, find places, and find exports.
Along with the popularization of semiconductor lighting fixtures in the future, lighting fixtures are indispensable in every indoor place. The positioning of lights signals is attracting the attention of the LED industry. An industrial revolution based on optical communication for indoor precision positioning and navigation is about to open. According to the reporter, visible light communication has the advantages of accurate positioning, low cost and high added value.
At present, Bytelight is the only company that masters the core technology of LED indoor positioning. It has developed a positioning service based on LED lighting, which enables the program to calculate the current position within one second, and the accuracy can reach one meter. The LED positioning system is implemented by LED luminaires on the ceiling. The luminaire emits a flashing signal like the Moss telegram password, which is then received and detected by the user's smartphone camera, and the user does not need to point the camera to a specific direction. It is also possible to receive a direct source signal that is fed back.
In China, LED lighting has also been successfully developed in positioning navigation. At the 15th China International Optoelectronic Expo, LED white light communication technology debuted in Shenzhen. It is understood that this new technology is still the first in China, and the positioning accuracy is increased by five times, but the cost is reduced by 80%. This emerging communication technology based on location technology (LBSLocation basedServi) white light communication technology research and development Fang Huace Optical Communication Technology Co., Ltd. demonstrated the underground personnel positioning system and Ubeacon indoor navigation system two generations of products, the principle of this technology is to be transmitted The information is compiled into a modulated signal, which is attached to the driving current of the LED luminaire by pulse width modulation, and the ubiquitous light source in the user is used as a transmitting carrier, and is received and decoded by a professional terminal or any intelligent terminal, thereby completing through the luminaire. The purpose of information transmission. The former of the two products can mainly achieve accurate positioning and real-time tracking of underground workers. The latter enables consumers to realize seamless linking of outdoor and indoor positioning and navigation with their own intelligent terminals. It is indoor navigation, O2O, advertising. The foundation for precise push and mobile social applications.