Phosphate fertilizer export policy should not be "across the board"
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In 2008, it was an extremely difficult year for China's phosphate fertilizer industry. On the one hand, the shortage of resources such as sulphur and potassium caused the skyrocketing cost prices, and on the other hand, it was a strict price limit policy of the country. The newly implemented export special tariff policy has once again pushed domestic phosphate fertilizer companies to the cusp of the storm. What is the impact of the new policy on the industry? How can the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry get out of its predicament? ......
Recently, during the 16th annual meeting of the phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid industry and the 5th member representative meeting of the Association, the reporter interviewed Wu Xiyan, Chairman of the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association.
Reporter: In 2007, China's long-term importer of phosphate fertilizers became a net exporter of phosphate fertilizers, and the entire industry showed a good momentum of development. After experiencing snow disasters, earthquakes and other natural disasters, how is China's phosphate fertilizer industry currently developing?
Wu Xiyan: Although the southern ice and snow disasters in February affected Guizhou and Hubei and other key phosphate fertilizer producing areas, Yunnan Power has a shortage of electricity. Overall, however, the production and sales of phosphorus compound fertilizer in the first quarter was in good condition. The output of phosphate fertilizer increased by 11.9% year-on-year, including high concentrations. Phosphate compound fertilizer increased by 14.3%. In order to ensure the use of fertilizer for spring farming, the vast majority of domestic phosphate fertilizer companies have overcome many difficulties such as natural disasters and substantial increases in raw materials, and strive to increase production and reduce exports. At the same time, the Phosphorus Fertilizer Association also actively cooperated with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Railways and other departments, and called on relevant companies to rush the transportation of DAP, NPK, and other products to the Three North Region, which satisfies the demand for spring plowing and fertilizer.
The Wenchuan earthquake in May had a great impact on the phosphate fertilizer companies in Sichuan, China. Now these local companies are stepping up their post-disaster production and reconstruction work and striving to resume production in the shortest possible time.
This year, China is expected to produce 14.5 million tons of phosphate fertilizer (P2O5), domestic demand 12 million tons (P2O5). Among them, DAP production is expected to reach 8 million tons; MAP production is expected to reach 10 million tons; compound fertilizers are expected to produce 55-60 million tons of output. DAP, MAP and NPK products can fully meet the needs of farmers.
Reporter: Recently, there has been widespread market that the price increase of phosphate fertilizer is caused by export pull. Some people believe that if there is not enough exports, there will be sufficient resources in the country and the price of fertilizer will naturally drop. Do you agree with this view?
Wu Xiyan: This is not the case. Now that China's phosphorus and compound fertilizers are withdrawn from the international market, the prices of international phosphorus compound fertilizers will continue to rise. Because the price of sulfur and potash rises, it will inevitably lead to the increase in the production costs of phosphate compound fertilizers, and international sulfur and potash fertilizers. The Chinese government is unable to control the prices, and the main culprit in the rise in production costs of phosphorus compound fertilizers is the soaring price of international sulfur and potash fertilizers.
We all know that the development of phosphorus compound fertilizer requires phosphorus, sulfur, potassium, ammonia (including nitrogen fertilizer) four kinds of raw materials, China has the advantages of phosphorus and synthetic ammonia resources, but the lack of sulfur and potassium. At present, China's dependence on the import of sulphur resources has reached 60%, and the dependence on potash fertilizer imports is as high as 70%. In the second quarter of this year, long-to-shore Cyanide Import prices have reached US$710-740/tonne. This year's imported offshore FOC price has increased by about US$400/tonne compared to last year, and the production cost has increased substantially, making the sales of phosphate compound fertilizers. The price is hard to drop.
Reporter: It has been more than a month since the implementation of the 100% special tariff imposed on the original basis. How do you see the impact of special tariffs on the phosphate fertilizer industry?
Wu Xiyan: Since the first quarter of this year, the country has adjusted the temporary tariffs on chemical fertilizers three times. Actually, temporary tariffs such as DAP and MAP have been adjusted to 35%, which is the highest tax rate in the world. On April 4, the State Council decided to start from April 20. From September 30 to September 30, a special 100% tariff will be added to the original temporary tariff.
The ultimate goal of the country's introduction of special tariffs is to reduce fertilizer prices by “plugging in†the export gates. From the current implementation, it seems that the desired ideal has not been achieved. I think the main reason is that there is no "right symptom?"
In fact, the “crux†of rising fertilizer prices is that raw materials and other cost-prices are soaring. Under the high cost promotion, companies need to survive and maintain their own development needs only by increasing product market prices.
Under the current market conditions, I believe that the government should adopt appropriate liberalization policies on the basis of fully satisfying domestic supply. Because in the current favorable situation of the international phosphate fertilizer situation, enterprises can not only absorb the cost of imported sulfur and potassium chloride, but also can compensate for the deficit in domestic sales through high international prices, and can also increase China’s phosphate fertilizer industry. The influence on the international stage is a win-win situation for both companies and countries. At the same time, appropriate exports, in the long run, also have a positive role in promoting the development of agriculture and rural areas in China.
On the contrary, the stringent “one-size-fits†macro-control policy implemented by the country has had a huge impact on the phosphate and compound fertilizer industry. In the long run, the implementation of this policy will neither result in a drop in the prices of phosphate and compound fertilizers. Will not eliminate some of the production capacity, to promote the purpose of upgrading the industry, on the contrary, tightly blocked the door of the export of phosphate fertilizers will only delay the pace of development of China's phosphate fertilizer industry, may cause the industry to fall into dilemma difficult situation.
At present, due to severe shortage of sulphur resources in the clouds, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Hubei, coupled with restrictions on export tariffs, basic phosphorus compound fertilizers such as DAP and MAP have been severely impacted, and some companies have been forced to restrict production, reduce production, or even stop production. .
I expect that after the middle or late June, the days of phosphorus and compound fertilizer companies may be even more difficult than they are now.
Reporter: According to the development trend of phosphate fertilizer industry at home and abroad, what do you think of the improvement of the national phosphorus fertilizer export policy? What are the suggestions for the development of the company?
Wu Xiyan: At present, there are more than 30 developing countries in the world have a food crisis, inflation pressure is also gradually increasing, the country is also implementing tight monetary policy. As the company's operating costs gradually increase, the pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction increases, which means that the era of low fertilizer prices is over.
In the past two years, China's phosphate fertilizer industry is maintaining a good momentum of development and it is at a critical period of development. At present, China's phosphate fertilizer industry is in a situation where both raw material costs are rapidly rising and national price limits are in double attack. If the country does not adopt appropriate policies, Guided, phosphate fertilizer companies can only face a dead end. Phosphate fertilizer is not a “two-high-funded†industry. As an association, we suggest that the country can stand in the position of a phosphate fertilizer company and, in the long-term, formulate scientific and correct macro-regulatory policies and measures for phosphorus compound fertilizers in line with China’s national conditions in order to promote phosphorus. Compound fertilizer industry is developing healthily.
The state should allow enterprises to maintain appropriate exports on the premise of guaranteeing domestic adequate supply of phosphorus fertilizer products, and should not adopt a “one size fits all†policy.
With the current shortage of international sulfur and potash fertilizer resources and high prices, China's phosphate fertilizer industry should adjust its industrial structure and product structure in a timely manner, and through the division of labor, resources should be allocated and used effectively and reasonably. At the same time, the company’s products should be transformed in the direction of refinement to effectively avoid the high risks brought about by the shortage of raw materials and soaring prices; to make efforts in technological innovation, new product development, and industrial chain extension, to strengthen the ability of independent innovation of enterprises, and improve overall The international competitiveness of the industry; visionary companies should go out and purchase, mergers and acquisitions, and joint ventures to set up resource companies abroad.
I believe that China's phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry, under the guidance of the country's macroeconomic policies, will seize the opportunity to make its own contributions to the food crisis of developing countries in the world while ensuring national food security.