The rubber market oscillates at high levels and sings international hot money to withdraw from the commodity market is the biggest turbulence factor

At the beginning of 2006, despite the high level of growth in rubber resources, especially synthetic rubber resources, the level of consumer demand has clearly declined, but the overall supply and demand relationship has remained in a tight balance, and due to the “lead rise” in international markets, prices in the domestic market have risen sharply. Reach new historic highs. High-level growth of new resources According to statistics, in February 2006, the country’s new rubber resources amounted to approximately 330,000 tons, an increase of 24.8% over the same period of last year, showing a high level of growth; cumulative new resources from January to February this year This was 670,000 tons, an increase of 11.7%. This is the first time in more than a dozen months that double-digit growth has occurred. In the composition of new rubber resources in February, natural rubber was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; synthetic rubber was 224,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. In the first two months of this year, the domestic natural rubber production area was cut off and there was no output. Due to the relatively serious natural disasters encountered in the previous year, there were not many stocks that were transferred to this year's production areas, and the amount of natural rubber listed decreased. The synthetic rubber production increased moderately. In February of this year, the national total output of synthetic rubber was 132,400 tons, which was 2.5% lower than the previous month. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival, it increased by 8.8% year-on-year. From January to February, the total output of synthetic rubber was 268,300 tons, which was only 5% higher than that of the previous month. Yearly growth. Rubber imports have increased significantly. After entering the month of February, the import of rubber increased significantly under the stimulus of price. According to customs statistics, in February, the country imported 201,500 tons of various types of rubber, an increase of 38.1% year-on-year; from January to February, it imported 400,000 tons of rubber, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. In the composition of rubber imports, imports of natural rubber in February were 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month, an increase of 22.2% over the same period of last year; imports of synthetic rubber were 91,500 tons, an increase of 2.9% from the previous month and an increase of 69.1% from the same period of last year. From January to February, China imported a total of 220,000 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 6.7%; it imported 180,000 tons of synthetic rubber, an increase of 35.6%. From January to February, although the import volume of natural rubber increased little, but under the pattern of tight rubber prices in the world, the import amount increased by more than 40% over the same period of last year. The consumption level has dropped significantly. In the new year, the increase in the production of major rubber products in the country has dropped significantly. According to statistics, in February, the country's tire production (including various kinds of tires, the same below) was 28.29 million, an increase of 10.3% compared with the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The higher increase in tire production in February was mainly due to the impact of the Chinese New Year. If the impact of this factor was excluded, the accumulated tire production in the country from January to February was 55.79 million, an increase of only 9.7% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the 28% of the previous year. Growth rate. Analysis of the main reasons for the declining growth rate of tire production is that the tire production in the previous year has grown too fast and the base for comparison has increased. Second, the price of rubber has soared around the Spring Festival this year, and the inhibitory effect on consumer demand has begun to appear. In February of this year, the consumption of all kinds of rubber in the country was about 400,000 tons, an increase of about 10% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative rubber consumption was 810,000 tons, an increase of 11%. It can be seen that the new domestic rubber resources in the first two months of this year are still less than consumer demand, and the supply and demand of natural rubber is even more tense. The shortage is partially resolved by digesting stocks, and there are also some sources of channels to supplement. Market prices have risen sharply Since 2005, the domestic production areas have experienced severe natural disasters, production has decreased, and carryover stocks are few; in the first two months of this year, domestic production areas were cut off and no new plastic was listed; the increase in the output of synthetic rubber was also significant. Fall back. Although the import volume has increased significantly and the level of consumption has dropped significantly, the tight supply and demand situation has not been completely changed. In particular, the dramatic rise in international market conditions has stimulated a strong rise in domestic prices. By the end of February, the price of natural rubber No. 5 rubber in key monitored areas in China reached a level of 20,000 yuan/ton, which was more than 10% higher than the end of the previous year. According to statistics, in February, the prices of dry rubber in Hainan and Yunnan provinces were 22033 yuan/ton and 21071 yuan/ton, up by 15.62% and 13.11% month-on-month, respectively, up 70.79% and 72.05% year-on-year. Due to the stimulation of rising spot market prices, natural rubber futures prices continued to soar. At the end of February, the average settlement price of the three-month contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210,447 yuan per ton, which was a 16% increase from the end of the previous year and set a record high again. High-level volatility is the outlook for the market outlook. Looking ahead to the rubber market, the construction of a new socialist countryside will add new impetus to rubber consumption. Tensions between the United States and Iraq also form a support for the rubber price. However, from a short-term perspective, some negative factors are also accumulating, the most important of which is the suppression effect of high prices on consumption, and the possibility of international hot money taking profits out of the commodity market. Under the pattern of the coexistence of Lido and negative factors, it is expected that the rubber market, especially the natural rubber market price, will be dominated by high volatility. In the medium term, market prices will be at historically high levels. The reason is: Domestic and foreign consumer demand is still strong. It is expected that the world economy will maintain steady growth in 2006, and the consumption of natural rubber will increase. China’s economy has entered the eleventh five-year plan, and the construction of a new socialist countryside has become an important work goal, with emphasis on infrastructure construction. Will be transferred to the vast rural areas, farmers into the city will also be a strong stimulus to domestic demand, thereby stimulating the tires and other rubber products, the strong growth in consumer demand. The buoyant consumer demand does not mean that the price of rubber will continue to rise. From a short-term perspective, with the constant upward movement of natural rubber prices, especially after entering a historical high of 20,000 yuan/ton or more, it will cause some negative factors to gradually accumulate, which will trigger fierce shocks in the market outlook. For example, the uncertainties in the import tax rate change, the existence of renminbi appreciation pressure, the suppression effect of high price levels on demand, and the possibility that speculative funds may convert investment directions are all negative factors. Therefore, there are views that the low interest rate policy since 2000 has caused the “currency bubble” to increase. Around US$7 trillion of international capital has gone around to find investment sites, and a considerable part of this has flooded into commodity futures markets. This is the main reason for creating this round of super bull markets. However, the global era of low interest rates is nearing completion, and changes in the environment and the high risk levels of market conditions will eventually make profitable withdrawal of international hot money from the commodity market and even reverse operations, thus becoming the biggest turbulence factor in the rubber market.

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